The Fed: Hawkish Policy Shift

June to August 2023

Bill Dudley: June 29 | The case for a higher neutral rate

Chair Powell: July 26 | “A full year from now”

Bill Dudley: August 1 | Hard landing required

John Williams: August 2 | Current Fed Funds only “modestly above” neutral

Mary Daly: August 10 | No rate cuts until YoY “supercore” is back to its pre-pandemic average

Neel Kashkari: August 15 | No construction job losses a “surprise”

Nick Timiraos: August 20 | Higher R* cometh

Nick Timiraos: August 22 | Powell doesn’t agree with the “opportunistic disinflation” approach