Fed Watch: Bill Dudley

Hard landing outlook confirmed.

Discussion

Former FRB New York President Bill Dudley has been a key FED communication channel since this tightening cycle began in late 2021, and his July 14, 2022 Bloomberg op-ed was formative in my thinking around the Fed’s anti-Burns reaction function - that being, the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy deep into a recession, thus exacerbating the ultimate economic and equity market fallout. The key passage was: