This Week on The WOTE: August 13, 2023
The Weight of the Evidence (WOTE) is comprised of four flagship WOTE write-up categories (The Market, The Fed, The Outlook, and The WOTE Public) and six sub-channels (Fed Watch, Market Journal, Flows & Liquidity “Team”, Economics Journal, Economics “Team”, and Trading Journal). Since I’ve moved the vast majority of my “journaling” content over to The WOTE from Xwitter, there is a fair amount of content generation over the course of a week, so for better ease of access I have started consolidating it on a weekly basis via “This Week on The WOTE” write-ups (labeled as “This Week” on the Flagship WOTE page). I will iterate the structure of the This Week write-ups over time, but for now the content structure is as follows:
Chart of the Week
The WOTE is simply my live markets and macro journal, not at all designed to be a slick subscription service and never to be construed as investment advice. But for hard core market junkies (CIOs, DORs, traders, etc) that would like my journaling process to be part of their own daily process, please see Introducing: “The WOTE as a Service”.
Chart of the Week: The Carter
In the Time to Chill post I described how the price action on August 10 was emblematic of how the market is likely to trade into Powell at Jackson Hole on 8/25. At the end of the post I footnoted a handful of snapshots of my live market journal commentary from that morning on the private WOTE Xwitter feed to highlight the fact that my process is very dialed into this market environment right now. Far from bragging, it’s to illustrate the fact that I can trust myself to take shots right now, particularly on the trading front.
Anyone at all familiar with the concept of being “in the zone” in sports knows full well what being in the zone does for your ability to execute with crisp confidence. You don’t need to “think”, you just do. Back on July 17 I wrote at length about where and how my process had struggled since last October, but how the lessons learned over that time put me in scary good position to execute over the next 6-12 months and beyond, principally due to learning and absorbing what Cem Karsan so often talks about: to “be water”.
In a Xwitter DM to a friend on July 14 I detailed my outlook for the earnings release response for AMZN, META, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, and NVDA. NVDA has yet to report, but my description of how the first five stocks would likely react was accurate to the point even I was shocked. ER reactions are notoriously difficult to gauge ex ante, so once earnings season got going and these reactions kept hitting my projection, I started to get the sense that the tide was turning for my process and that sense was confirmed this week.
Again, I’m a month out from writing at length about how difficult the last nine months have been. There is literally never an appropriate time to be cocky in markets, especially just as the tide is turning. Highlighting the tide turning is not bragging, it’s doing what you do with a journal: documenting what’s going on in real time. The bottom line: I’m in the zone, and I’m going to keep grinding day in and day out to stay in the zone. And when I leave the zone, I’ll write about how I’ve left the zone, and I’ll keep grinding day in and day out to get back into the zone.
Live market journal commentary from the morning of August 10.
Earnings release reaction projections from July 14.
EOD Update (Market Journal, August 8)
Mid-Day Update (Market Journal, August 9)
Hiking Cycle Over (Fed Watch, August 10)
Time to Chill (The WOTE Public, August 11)
John Williams NYT Interview (August 7)
Michelle Bowman (August 6)
August 9: See “Free Content” above
Post says 8/11 only because it wasn’t published until after midnight