The Market: Correction to SPX 3721 Underway
Fully public post.
It has been an exceedingly confusing period since the 10/27 SPX low. On one hand the multiple gap-ups indicated a surge in demand for stocks often found coming out of durable multi-month lows, but the subsequent and decisive fade lower in market breadth over the course of this week suggested something was afoot. I said via private Xwitter yesterday morning that I could make the case for +/- 5% on SPX over the next week - it didn’t take but a few hours for the direction to become clear in the wake of the ugly UST 30s auction and FED Chair Powell’s hawkish commentary designed to push back on the proliferation of “surgical rate cuts” talk amongst bullish financial market participants. In short, SPX is now set-up to correct down to the 3721 level discussed in the now-public October 30 post below, if not a full retest of the October 2022 low of 3490 by year-end.
Every day via private Xwitter I document my market thoughts through the lens of what I call my “Cross-Asset Market Signaling Process”. The reason I do this analysis via private Xwitter is I typically consolidate my thoughts from the day late at night away from a computer, so it’s just easier to do via phone on Xwitter1.
Below is the latest CASP update, which details how and why I believe SPX is now set-up to correct down to the levels suggested above.
The CASP was a natural evolution of The WOTE since June, and it allowed me to create a separate $25/month service for access to just the private Xwitter account. The CASP isn’t as in-depth as the write-ups on The WOTE, but in addition to live market journaling and trading, it makes for a perfectly reasonable $25/month service, very much on par with any other service out there. FYI and FWIW.