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Discussion
The April 2022 analog I’ve discussed has failed to play out, but since this is the fourth term premium-driven correction, the other three analogs remain firmly in play, specifically the August-October 2023 correction.
This TLT-driven bounce in SPOOZ looks precisely like the late August/early September 2023 bounce, with TLT’s limp rally above its 20dma not confirming the move in stocks…unlike the November 2023 rally in the wake of the Fed/Treasury pivot when TLT ripped above the 20dma toward its 50dma.
Further confirming the lack of rally oomph, SPY 50dma breadth is negatively diverging from the Index and advancing volume sits almost exactly at the level that marked the top of the late August/early September 2023 mid-correction rally.