WOTE Asset Management Home Page
WOTE Asset Management Home Page
April 2, 2024 update.
Current Views
Last Update
Current Positioning: April 2, 2024
See the WAM channel here and/or private Xwitter here for strategy updates between WAM Home Page updates, as this page is updated less frequently than positioning.
WOTE US 60/40: 80% SPLG, 20% BIL
WOTE US Long/Short Equity: +200% equity exposure via SSO
WOTE Special Ops: 100% invested across April, May and July SPY calls.
WOTE US Core Equity: See image below.
Performance: YTD March 21, 2024
Performance Discussion
Performance has been objectively terrible YTD. But there is critical context to it that I want to discuss here.
My style is very aggressive, so wide swings in performance are par for the course. Unfortunately this “swing” YTD came right out of the gate of me beginning to officially track The WOTE’s performance.
The WOTE was actually “born” during COVID - I just didn’t know it at the time. The background to The WOTE is too long for this discussion, but suffice it to say, everything I had learned career-to-date officially came together during COVID, and “The WOTE Way” was created, just in a different forum.
From 2020 to mid-2023 I managed my personal capital via a combination of the WOTE US Long/Short Equity and WOTE US Core Equity strategies. I handily outperformed SPX from 2020 to 2021 on the long side before going to cash in December 2021 and then going fully short in early 2022. I dramatically outperformed in 2022 before overstaying my welcome on the short side up until around June 2023 and thus underperforming handily in 1H23.
In 2H23 two things happened: 1) I began incubating an options strategy, and 2) in November I came up with the idea of segmenting my personal portfolio into what is now WOTE Asset Management.
All that to say, unfortunately I cannot go back and cleanly report on performance going back to 2020, thus I’m stuck with a 12/31/2023 starting point. I know full well the poor performance YTD does not reflect the quality of The WOTE cross-asset market research process, but I will need to prove that out over time, and I am highly confident I will over the coming quarters and years.
I am still in a bit of a “start-up”, rapid iteration mindset with The WOTE, as writing and reporting on my process and performance publicly forces me to think about and evolve my process in ways I did not think to prior to The WOTE. However, with the latest WOTE Report and associated About page enhancements, I believe I have reached a great spot from both an operational and investment process standpoint, and anticipate a steady-as-she goes approach to strategy, process, and site format for the foreseeable future.
Strategies
These are my four US-centric personal investment strategies.
WOTE US 60/40
Benchmark: 60% SPY, 40% BIL
Discussion: The WOTE US 60/40 strategy is designed to isolate my performance over- and under-weighting equities versus fixed income in the context of a US 60/40 portfolio.
WOTE US Core Equity
Benchmark: SPY
Discussion: The WOTE US Core Equity strategy is designed to isolate my performance in equity sector selection in a fully invested US equity portfolio with a SPY benchmark. This portfolio would typically comprise the equity portion of the WOTE US 60/40 portfolio, but for performance reporting purposes I want to break the investment process into its component parts.
WOTE US Long/Short Equity
Benchmark: SPY
Discussion: I do not short individual equities, so the vast majority of the short exposure in this strategy is to indices and sectors, but primarily the key indices SPX and NDX. When 200-300% long exposure is warranted (see below), the strategy will be aggressively long select sector ETFs and individual securities.
Because the benchmark is SPY (and not cash), the strategy is allowed to go 300% long in order to be consistent with the ability to be -100% short. In other words, if we’re -100% short and SPX rises by 10%, then we’re trailing SPY by -20%. Likewise, if we’re 300% long and SPX drops -10%, then we’re trailing SPY by -20%.
WOTE Special Ops
Benchmark: SPY
Discussion: Highly tactical, aggressive strategy largely run through the private Xwitter account. A tiny part of my overall portfolio, but is a useful reflection of my cyclical and tactical views of the equity market.
Positioning Framework
Disclaimer
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
The Weight of the Evidence (The WOTE) newsletter (inclusive of anything and everything publicly and privately associated with it, no matter how tangential) contains the author’s own thoughts and opinions on financial markets. The WOTE is for educational and entertainment purposes only and none of the content or ideas should be taken as financial advice. The author is not responsible for any financial gain or loss that you may incur by acting on the information provided. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions and should do your own due diligence in regard to opinions and ideas on the markets to form your own personal view and form your own trades. For investment or financial advice, consult with a registered investment advisor and/or financial advisor. By reading The WOTE you are agreeing to these terms, and acknowledge it is for sharing the author’s thoughts and opinions on financial markets. Your trading and investing style, preferences, and risk management may significantly differ from the author’s.