This Week on The WOTE: July 22, 2023
Discussion
The Weight of the Evidence (WOTE) Substack is comprised of four flagship WOTE write-up categories (The Market, The Fed, The Outlook, and The WOTE Public) and six sub-channels (Fed Watch, Market Journal, Flows & Liquidity “Team”, Economics Journal, Economics “Team”, and Trading Journal). Since I’ve moved the vast majority of my “journaling” content over to The WOTE from Twitter, there is a fair amount of content generation over the course of a week, so for better ease of access I would like to consolidate it on a weekly basis under a new flagship WOTE category “This Week on The WOTE” (labeled as “This Week” at the top of the site). I will iterate the structure of the This Week write-ups over time, but for now the content structure is as follows:
Chart of the Week
Free Content
Flagship WOTE
Channel Content
The WOTE is simply my live markets and macro journal, not at all designed to be a slick subscription service and never to be construed as investment advice. But for hard core, down and dirty market junkies (CIOs, DORs, traders, etc) that would like my journaling process to be part of their own daily process, please see Introducing: “The WOTE as a Service”.
Chart of the Week
From the Economics Journal: Hard Landing Cometh (July 20)
Free Content
“I Succeed Because I Fail” (July 17, The WOTE Public)
“Be Water” (July 19, Market Journal)
AZO as an Indicator? (July 20, Economics Journal)
Flagship WOTE
The Market
Sentiment Reset Appears to be Underway (July 17)
Short-Term Pullback Thesis Stop Loss (July 18)
Risk-Off Window Continues to Open (July 21)
Channel Content
Fed Watch
Potentially Critical Change in Tone (July 17)
Economics Journal
Hard Landing Cometh (July 20)
TSMC as an Indicator? (July 20)
Watching 5y5y Break-Evens (July 21)
Market Journal
July 17:
July 18:
July 19:
July 20:
Darius strikes me as very bright and well spoken, but I don’t follow him closely enough to have an opinion beyond that. He’s in a tough business, though, and I’m sure there’s a ton of pressure to get every call right.
Not able to comment on today’s post, so adding this here: Mike Wilson on this week’s On the Tape pod is worth a listen. Nailed the turn in October, but was perfectly candid about being wrong YTD. Of course he’s mindful of price action, but said he’s unlikely to revise his thesis unless deterioration isn’t evident in Q3 earnings.