Discussion
In my Jackson Hole 2023 preview below, I said I anticipated three things from Powell:
He would look to build on his closing message from last year by weighing the “confidence” evidence that has accumulated since Jackson Hole 2022
Provide the following assessment of said evidence: emphasize the fact growth has not been below trend by enough for long enough; downplay the need to drive the unemployment rate up to the June SEP target of 4.5%; and explicitly define the threshold for rate cuts as the YoY “supercore” inflation rate falling to its pre-pandemic average
Speak with a dovish tone in order to manage the financial conditions tightening that was likely to ensue in the wake of a hawkish speech
