Market Journal: The Week Ahead
Big week of key data releases and Powell's press conference.
Monday
S&P Global US manufacturing (46.1 consensus) and services (54 consensus) PMIs at 9:45am
Discussion: European PMIs this morning surprised to the downside, so these data take on even greater importance as far as shaping FED tone and message later this week.
Tuesday
Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 10am
Goldman 113 versus 112 consensus
Wednesday
FOMC statement at 2pm
Powell press conference at 2:30pm
Thursday
GDP at 8:30am
Goldman: 2.5%
Consensus: 1.8%
Claims
Goldman: 230k
Consensus: 235
Continuing Claims (consensus 1,750k)
BOJ meeting in the evening
Discussion: The market is obsessed with the possibility the BOJ could lift its YCC program, and this meeting in particular has been called out as a spot they could hint at a move. I don’t buy it. Japan has struggled under the weight of deflation for decades - why would they fight inflation now? Nonetheless, something to watch, especially from the standpoint of market reaction ahead of and in response to.
Friday
Employment Cost Index at 8:30am
Goldman: 1%
Consensus: 1.1%
Discussion: Outside of Powell (and the BOJ if they were to hint at lifting YCC) ECI is the biggest data print of the week, as consistent wage disinflation is exactly what the Fed the Fed is looking for to bring inflation back to target and engineer a soft landing if the unemployment rate can stay low while wages disinflate via the job openings channel
Core PCE
Goldman: .21% MoM
Consensus: .2%