Discussion
Since this morning’s update VIX has turned green, equities red, and HY CDX opened up green. All signs point to a hot NFP at 8:30. Biggest wildcard is AHE - a soft print there could catalyze a “soft landing” morning rally.
How rates react remains key. Rates have been bulletproof to softer than expected data lately, foreshadowing the current run up close to or at new highs, depending on the tenor - as such, I would be very surprised if a soft AHE catalyzed a sustained move lower in rates and a sustained “soft landing” rally.