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Discussion
Friday’s market action was odd. There was some supposed relief that March’s official PCE data didn’t come in at 40-50 bps MoM, but that’s a very odd relief point given FED officials told us in advance what the number was. Rates came in a bit Friday, but equity breadth was meh, and most importantly Bitcoin was down. BTC is a key tell for risk appetite, and so far this weekend it has sustained its weakness. And now we know why: ceasefire hope in Gaza.
We all know Hamas has not kept enough hostages alive to meet Israel’s demands, but the equity market loves a good fantasy to latch on to. BTC confirms the fantasy.