Israel-Iran: Did Iran’s Attack End the Conflict?
General Frank McKenzie’s analysis of Iran’s attack suggests it might have.
Discussion
As I’ve outlined ad nauseam, the Biden administration is laser focused on its reelection campaign, and this focus on Election Day is dictating its handling of the Israel-Iran conflict. See the blurb from Bloomberg this morning below.
But Biden & Co’s handling of the conflict is a tactical consideration that sits above a larger strategic issue, that being Iran’s seemingly existential threat to the state of Israel. At first glance, it looked like Iran’s well-telegraphed attack yesterday was “performative” in order to placate Iranians calling for a response to Israel’s April 1 embassy attack without inciting a dangerous escalation into all-out regional war. A performative attack would imply Iran’s hundreds-of-missiles barrage merely scratched the surface of its military capabilities, and if they respond with dramatically more force to an Israeli retaliation then the region will quickly become engulfed in all-out regional war. However…
The unbiased analysis of General Frank McKenzie in this morning’s interview on Face The Nation could suggest Iran’s not-so-performative attack all but ended the Israel-Iran conflict that’s been in place since October 7, 2023.
General Frank McKenzie
Summary of McKenzie’s comments:
This was a max-effort attack by Iran that only appears “performative” because of the incredible defensive effort by Israel and its allies.
Iran would not be able to replicate that same attack today if it wanted to - last night stretched their military to its max.
Israel now knows the extent of Iran’s military capabilities. As a result, it can “name the terms” of its response. McKenzie would recommend a military in Israel’s now-enviable position to exercise restraint - take its time, plot out the best long-term response, then act.
Iran’s nuclear program is not worth attacking.
Iran won’t admit it, but Iran needs to go back to the military drawing board.
If McKenzie is correct, Iran’s lack of military might being exposed to the world, alongside a brilliant demonstration of Israel’s military might and backing of an international coalition, likely just ended the Israel-Iran conflict, especially from the standpoint of the financial market geopolitical risk premium.
The end of the conflict won’t be obvious, especially in the near term, but equity markets are likely to be “illogically” resilient in the coming weeks despite this weekend’s “dangerous” escalation in the region.