Israel-Hamas: Triangulating the Likelihood of a Ground Invasion
"The enemy is a disease that has no cure." - From a note pulled from a dead Hamas fighter.
The direction of financial markets with respect to Israel-Hamas hinges on whether Israel moves forward with its invasion of Gaza, as Iran & Co have made it clear that the war will escalate if Israel invades. This is why every positive headline about hostage negotiations leads to a rally in equities and a decline in war hedges (oil and gold). With supposedly ~200 hostages held by Hamas, the calculus for financial markets is rather straightforward: If Israel holds off on a ground invasion until Hamas releases all 200, and Hamas releases two hostages every week, that’s 100 weeks of market-positive delay in the conflict. Financial markets and Hamas terrorists are ruthlessly cynical - both understand this calculus.
So, the question of the day is: Will Israel actually wait until all 200 are released before proceeding with its ground invasion?