Israel-Hamas Journal: Progress Toward “Whatever it Takes”

Discussion

Legitimately good progress toward “whatever it takes” was made this weekend. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made it clear the US is not backing down…

…and a joint statement by the US and Europe was equally as strong.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/22/joint-statement-on-israel-2/

These verbal commitments and incremental military actions are critical, though at this point they are the equivalent of rate cuts early in an economic downturn. Iran & Co will continue pressing until it’s crystal clear the US and its allies will back Israel until Hamas is eradicated while ensuring the conflict does not spread.

Oil and gold will continue to be key indicators for assessing the direction of the war, and as of tonight a decent move down in the price of both says progress has been made.

Tomorrow morning I’ll have a write-up detailing Israel’s battle plan as outlined by an Israeli military official on Friday. In short, as long as the US maintains support Israel should have reasonably little trouble administering a concurrent ground offensive in Gaza and an air offensive in Lebanon. It’s ALL about how Iran & Co responds. If the US maintains strong support of Israel, and Iran & Co cuts its losses by letting Hamas and Hezbollah fall to Israel, this conflict should eventually fade into the background. The problem is as outlined in the write-up below: “they want every Jew dead” and “phase 1 is complete.” Perhaps Iran & Co is bluffing, but if not, this is going to be a long, drawn out affair until the “whatever it takes” moment arrives.