Introducing: “The WOTE as a Service”
Updated August 28, 2023.
I am a money manager, market strategist, and director of research that takes a "weight of the evidence" (WOTE) approach to cross-asset market analysis. The WOTE is a journal of my views, and should never be construed as investment advice.
“The WOTE as a Service”
As communicated on August 20 in a now-deleted post, I have moved everything on The WOTE under a simple $50/month subscription plan. In the August 20 communication I said that I planned to raise the price to $100 over the course of the next 6-12 months. I no longer plan to do that, which is why I deleted that post. I like the Bloomberg model of one set premium price that is raised maybe 10% a year over time as the service is constantly iterated and improved, with the real long-term value creation coming from the network effect and stickiness of the relationship.
The WOTE is a simple extension of my daily investment process, and because I’m constantly iterating and improving my process, The WOTE will be constantly iterated and improved over time as well.
Two Core Competencies
Cross-asset market analysis
In my opinion, the most value I add to the investment community is on the FED watching front. I learned years ago from studying Stan Druckenmiller and David Tepper that keeping an obsessive eye on FED policy was key to market success, and I have since developed my own standalone ability to effectively monitor FED policy developments in real time.
My second core competency is cross-asset market analysis developed from far too much time spent staring at the market and learning from trading mistakes.
These two core competencies form the core of The WOTE and sit at the top of the site as highlighted below. FED watching is conducted via longer-form write-ups under “The Fed” tag and shorter-form policy analysis on the “Fed Watch” channel; while cross-asset market analysis is conducted via longer-form write-ups under “The Market” tag and more tactical analysis via the “Market Journal” channel and private Xwitter account.
Flagship WOTE: Longer-Form Write-Ups
The Market - cross-asset market analysis with a heavy focus on equities
The Fed - in-depth analysis of FED policy
The Outlook - medium-term equity market outlook
WOTE Channels: Shorter-Form Write-Ups
Fed Watch - shorter-form, timely updates on FED policy
Market Journal - tactical cross-asset market analysis (typically 1-2x per day)
Trading Journal - trading log for my personal tactical trading account
Flows & Liquidity “Team” - public analysis from key flows & liquidity players
Economics Journal - irregular write-ups on key economic data
Economics “Team” - public analysis from key business cycle analysts
The Macro Club - irregular Xwitter space I run through the “@thecarter758” Xwitter account
Used to communicate trades in real time
Also used as a live market journal to document thinking in real time in between write-ups done via the Market Journal channel discussed above
For access to “@TheWOTE_Private” please DM your paid subscription email and request to follow
Up until mid-June 2023 I used The WOTE as a channel for longer-form write-ups on The Market, The Fed, and The Outlook, and my Xwitter account (“@thecarter758”) for real-time journaling of my cross-asset market analysis and FED watching, all of which was free to the public.
My process has been bearish on equities since December 2021, and remained so even at the SPX low in October 2022. As is well-documented, I made a variety of tactical errors since the October low, predominately of omission, but strategically my process never wavered. By mid-June, it became untenable to maintain a strategically bearish stance in public; but because my process remained decisively bearish on equities, and my conviction never wavered, I needed to continue processing the world as I saw it and not change my view to fit in publicly. So, I decided to consolidate and repurpose my cross-asset market journaling process via The WOTE behind a very high paywall so that I could journal in private.
I never once intended to turn anything into a subscription service, but since mid-June four things happened:
Soon after I went private a handful of folks reached out and said they found value in my strategic work even though the tactical analysis had been off, so I lowered the subscription fee to a level that made sense for serious market participants.
As I progressed through the consolidation and repurposing process I realized that by bringing the bulk of what I was producing on Xwitter over to The WOTE my macro/market journaling process in the aggregate pretty seamlessly formed the basis of a subscription offering that could be of value to the CIO, DOR and trader communities. That led me to more purposefully organize the site around my process in a way that followers could easily navigate, including the addition of my Trading Journal on July 10.
In early August a couple of personal friends pinged me that they wanted access to the trading journal. Theretofore we had always swapped trade ideas via text, but since I started logging trades on The WOTE, they no longer saw what I was doing. Since I had the Trading Journal under a Founding Member subscription tier, I couldn’t grandfather them in (Substack doesn’t allow you to add free subs to the Founding Member tier) - so what I did was added them to the private Xwitter account and I started logging trades in real time there in addition to the Trading Journal write-ups on The WOTE. I started logging trades via the private Xwitter account on August 7, and since then I’ve found myself live journaling my market thoughts as well. It’s just easier on Xwitter in real-time, then when I have a chance to sit down I’ll write up longer-form market thoughts on The WOTE Market Journal channel.
Since August 7 I was pinged again about the Trading Journal, which led me to scrap the Found Member tier and just consolidate everything under one simple $50/month plan.
As discussed at the top, I like having everything under just a clean $50/month plan. As I iterate and improve The WOTE over time I’ll consider raising the price by maybe 10% a year, but that’s a decision for well into next year. For now, with everything buttoned up and organized I can focus solely on the historic market opportunity at hand, and anyone that wants to join is now able.