Discussion
In a podcast appearance out today, Cem Karsan officially updated his views since pounding the table on taking on a shot on the short side on June 15. In short:
VOL didn’t react to the decline off the June 15 high in a way that suggested THE decline was underway
Back to buying calls in anticipation of market up, fixed strike vol up into another blow-off top attempt
Next shot at the short side likely comes around July 19 with SPX over 4600
https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/250-systematic-investor-series-ft-cem-karsan-july-1st-2023/
Max Anderson has done a great job of tracking net Fed liquidity over time, and his model currently suggests SPX fair value is around 4000-4050.