Economics “Team”: Removing 42 Macro

Discussion

Unfortunately, I need to remove 42 Macro from my Economics “Team” due to a blatant process violation compounded by an amazingly misleading re-write of history. Starting at minute 21 of the discussion below, Darius goes into how he “pivoted” out of his bearish stance in mid-January because price action was going against his thesis and he would “back and fill” the narrative later. Not only is that a horrifying process violation (it’s one thing to respect price action, it’s quite another to change your macro narrative and thesis to fit it), it’s grossly misleading.

In the video below from April, Darius went into detail about how 2H23 was likely to be very rough for asset markets and perhaps even tempt the Fed to start talking about rate cuts and QE. There was not even a hint of the current thesis that stocks melt up into recession and bears are about to get run over.

While this development really is too bad, there’s actually a lot of signal available in it: 42 Macro has been one of the preeminent macro bears in the market, so this type of blatant capitulation to price action while making up a narrative to justify the capitulation along the way is a very good sign we are close to the end of the soft landing narrative-driven run in stocks.