Economics Journal: Core Services ex. Housing Inflation

Goldman projects a problematic reacceleration.

Aug 19, 2023

Discussion

Yesterday Goldman put out a report projecting that Core Services ex. Housing inflation is likely to average 45 bps MoM for the next 6 months.

If Goldman is right, the Fed is highly unlikely to start cutting rates in 1Q24 as the market currently expects, given the hawkish focus on getting Core Services ex. Housing down to its pre-pandemic average Mary Daly outlined after the July CPI report.

The Fed: Higher Until “Highly Confident”

The Carter

August 13, 2023

The Fed: Higher Until “Highly Confident”

Discussion What makes the game of markets so fun is that you never know how a thesis is going to ultimately come together. Pieces of evidence come from all different sources, you process them, take some out, leave some in, bring some back. Then ‘poof’ a thesis emerges as if it was staring you in the face the entire time.

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The Weight of the Evidence

The Fed: Higher Until “Highly Confident”

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